tv MONEY With Melissa Francis FOX Business April 1, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
smartphone. speak to. david: the number one thing to watch is economist are expecting orders to rise 2.9%. let's hope they do. following a drop of 2% in january. liz: join us now. we are always here for you. money with david shapiro is coming up next. adam: hello, i am adam shapiro. a federal judge ruled that stocks in california can keep making pension payments rather than creditors. more on that in a moment. if you own shares of tesla, you made big money today. it's electric model s savannas topping shares. and you don't always have to be alive to make money. the walking dead and amc have rewritten the cable tv record
book. last night walking dead season finale scored 12.4 million viewers and it is the most-watched telecast in cable history. despite the record, shares of the networks closed 2% today. the stocks were driven up 25% just this year. even when they say it's not, it's always about "money." ♪ ♪ ♪ adam: a good afternoon. first up, a groundbreaking legal case to tell you about. it affect pensions from coast-to-coast, that includes you. a federal judge ruled that stockton, california, is eligible for bankruptcy protection. this sets the stage for stockton to pay calpers $900 million instead of main pingback almost
$165 million it owes in municipal bonds. to make sense of this and what it means for you, i am joined by a partner with the strategic media. in a former federal prosecutor. i welcome you both to the show. let me start with mark. the big people that are going to take a head are the insurance companies. should stocks default on their portion of the bond, this is precedent-settingg stockton could choose not to fund their pension obligation. is that acura? >> yes, i think that is one of the things that they will have to do down the road. the judge in this case was always kind of leaning towards bankruptcy. he wanted to get some kind of a decision that is legal issues, they have something to deal with. the creditors are the ones who are going to take a huge cut on what ever kind of renegotiations are going through.
they have told everybody that pension funds are sacrosanct and they cannot be touched. >> that's right, stockton made the decision to fund obligation to calpers and not perhaps cut back on that and fund the obligation to the bondholders. those who have insurance will essentially be made whole but what is the danger going forward? we have those on the verge of bankruptcy or have declared a form of bankruptcy. will we see this pickup, and who will really be left holding this? >> well, a couple of questions. first of all, in this case, the bondholders and insurance companies are left holding this. the entire state of new jersey in 2018, one third of its entire revenues are supposed to go towards pension obligations. it's a huge crisis. but what bothers me about this is the city is supposed to put
together a plan of adjustment, how we will pay back their debt. then they make a conscious the conscious decision that we are going to throw the bondholders under the bus. we will continue to pay this fund. and arguably, these guys -- i'm not so sure you can show bad faith. ultimately, someone has to say, wait a second. these programs are a huge anchor around the neck of these municipalities and states. i do not think it is fair to allow these guys to make this decision and then get frustrated adam: i would imagine it would be hard for stockton, california, to ever borrow another cent. they've been borrowing, have they not? >> yes, there was a bond rate of $150,000. talk about brother, can you spare a dime.
if you don't think for one minute that the city of detroit is watching this closely, you are mistaken. so we have a bankruptcy judge's decision that will allow us to proceed in bankruptcy. these people are going to come in and make a determination. this plan of adjustment has to be fair and equitable. i'm not sure it needs it at this point. adam: would i be accurate to assume that borrowing costs coast-to-coast, even though that could be in good standing? >> without a doubt. if you have a bar like this that is set incredibly low, you get visas like fresno, sacramento, places larger than stockton saying that we would like to have some municipal projects here that will help improve the quality of life. then the bondholders say, what is the point of investing? i think it has huge implications for the bond market. adam: i'm sitting here thinking wow, i'm finally going to be able to make money in bonds
because interest rates are going to go up if i'm willing to take the risk. you are shaking your head there. am i wrong to assume that? >> i think you may be wrong. the bonds are supposed to be the safest place to put your money. now we are seeing a repayment plan and "the new york times" says they have never seen anything like this ever. it is a real problem. municipalities have the right to do specific service and they can do it with different revenue sources. at the end of the day, as a bond purchaser, why do this? adam: i think the answer to that question is there is always someone willing to take the risk. mark, you get the last word. >> the shame of this is that the attorneys never really delved into the issue of whether calpers could renegotiate on its own. it's an issue of termination, they could go in and stretch out the payments.
they have the flexibility that bond and mortgage rates do not. adam: gentlemen, we appreciate you being here. this is an issue that we will discuss going forward, detroit is watching this very carefully. have a good evening, gentlemen. investors talked to share in pain over the weekend to celebrate record gains. but let's talk about how you can make some money now for the next three months. will stocks climb higher, or will a market correction bring the bears out of hibernation. jonathan hoenig is here with this topic on what to buy. >> it is great to be with you. adam: i have been listening to people say five to 8% pullback. where should we put our money as we start off the second-quarter? >> i think you should put it in stocks. the biggest advantage you can have is trading with the trend. so even after this great first quarter, the stocks remain
higher. even today, the market was down a little bit, but there were more new highs new lows. so that is a bullish sign. even the all-time highs, which you referenced a few weeks ago, it is natural to think that this is their high. it is a bullish sign moving forward. it is a great first quarter that we have already had. >> before we get into the specifics, we had a guest on fox business saying that the expectations for earnings is supposed to be about half a percent. our guest is saying that is an underestimate and it will be closer to three or 4%. it sounds as though it will be a good earnings season. would you agree? >> i think earnings will likely be strong. even more than that is the prevailing attitude among most investors, which is doubt. most investors have been ambivalent about stocks.
they are much more heavily invested in bonds. that is where the risk will be this year. not necessarily the big 29 collapse in stocks. but a pain in the bond market and holding those treasuries save. adam: let's talk about where you would like to see money flow. we see a global spread of money. we saw close to $60 billion. where should the money be going? what you perceive as the strongest? >> a few areas that i am looking at, one is actually japan. an example of how stocks have not always worked in the long-term. they have had a great six month run. i like sports franchises. the average has gone up about 30% in the last year. manchester united is the world's
biggest soccer team and sports brands. if you are worried about rising interest rates, one that rises with these rates and i like it. adam: okay, getting to a question, what investment is one that everyone should be concerned with? >> for me it happens to be gold. adam: people haven't been talking about, have a? >> they have, gold is a great example where there is much more hope and doubt. a lot of folks have bought gold in anticipation of some sort of a catastrophic collapse and the dollar is strengthening. so i actually think that gold is something to avoid right now.
i think a local lower from here's the one you think this will go up on unity bonds because of the court ruling in telephone a? >> i do. that is why i think investors should avoid this. as you said in your earlier segment, folks will buy an investment when it offers an attractive yield. all bonds offered a downside risk right now. just like housing and student loans when government gets involved. it almost always follows. that is why we avoid stocks and bonds in the portfolio. adam: jonathan hoenig, make you very much. as he said, equities in 2013. we have three quarters to go. thank you. next, an exit plan for the feds. one of the country's top financial professors knows how to bring the money printing to an end without killing markets. he is here with his details.
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>> what i do know is that this market lives and dies by the last word of the fed and those people have no clue what they are doing. ben bernanke the most dangerous man ever to hold a high financial office in the history of the united states. adam: that was former reagan budget director david stockman not holding back on what he really thinks of the federal banks and the monetary easing. they are pressing ahead with the 85 billion-dollar a month asset purchase program. all experts are talking about is when will it stop and how can it stop about growing the economy and the markets into another recession. welcome to the show, professor, we appreciate being here.
>> thank you for having me. adam: why do we have to have this exit strategy? >> well, here is the problem. they created about $2 trillion worth of reserves and almost all of it, 1.7 trillion, it is more than required by the banks. they are content with just sitting with those excess reserves. the worry is when the fed finally starts raising interest rates, the things are going to lend out those excess reserves and those could be extremely inflationary and the economy. so the solution that people are talking to, reducing the excess reserves. that requires them to sell
$1.7 billion from the portfolio, treasury bonds mortgage-backed securities and people say oh, when they are raising interest rates, you'll be dumping trillions of dollars. and there will be chaos. adam: so there is one way to do it, what we are talking about essentially is mopping it up and instead of dumping, perhaps making the banks take this money in the form of capital ratios. is that what we are talking about? >> my proposal is the banks are holding it. but with the federal reserve has power over, what percent of all their deposits that they have to hold as reserves, as they said this at 15%, all of the excess reserves would be used in the market and would not be available for any inflationary
lending on the part of the banks. now that they have the power to pay interest on those reserves, the banks would've said, that is very burdensome. otherwise it would they would be willing to hold those reserves and substitute for capital. they will be killing birds despite raising those reserve requirements. >> you're talking about eight to 15%. is that correct? >> yes, between that, the fed has a statutory range. although temporarily they can impose even higher limits. i am not saying that they have to absorb every single penny. if they just absorbed maybe $1 trillion, that reduces the amount that they have to get rid of on the other side. they can do a combination. but i worked it out and it will not be all that burdensome.
they can absorb and prevent what could be a very disruptive exit strategy. adam: i have to plead a little bit of ignorance here. would be a transfer of funds that to the bank, or would they actually have to buy these assets from the fed? is that hell would take place? >> right now they are already holding these reserves voluntarily. the banks are holding $1.6 trillion worth of the reserves. if the banks ever went on a lending spree because they have these excess reserves, our company would be in trouble. what i am saying is that the bank is needs to save your holding these, i am not going to make you have to hold them and i will give you interest. adam: you're talking about the ability to lend about. >> yes, this closes the door on excessive whining. adam: the fed wants excessive
whining. is that right? i don't see them shutting the door anytime soon. wouldn't dry up liquidity? >> that is when they are going to start raising interest rates, that is when they will start exiting from their portfolio. at that time, they have to put the constraint on london. i think the easiest way for them to do that is to say, okay, now i am going to say that you have to hold this. i will give you some interest on them, so will not be that much every burden. >> okay. >> i think that would make the market happier. the worry about selling $1.7 trillion of bonds onto the market. during the time they will be raising those rates.
adam: professor jeremy siegel. i think you have my brother when he was there a lot of years ago. >> i have a lot of students come is about as possible. adam: up next, a huge oil spill in arkansas could put the keystone pipeline on thin ice. and opponents say this is the exact reason why the project should be killed. we will talk about it next. plus, commodities by the side of the road. we are going to tell you how you can make some money and profit in that market. can you ever have too much "money"? welcome to the new new york state.
an exxon pipeline burst an arkansas forcing evacuations because of the risk to health to help the people that live near it due to the food and fumes fuel to the fire and the critics could be a huge obstacle for the keystone xl pipeline. our next guest has been fighting transcanada in court over the keystone project, not necessarily on the environmental issues, but as it encroaches on our farm. manager at the red arc farm, and we welcome you back to the show. good to me to. let me just get straight to the issue. as we watch this oil pipeline spill and arkansas, this a very 10,000 gallons of oil already. exxon is saying the airplane that 12,000 gallons of oil and water. are the environmental concerns because of something like this going to help your cause to stop keystone comedy think? >> is certainly has fuelled some
more discussion. since friday my phone has been ringing off the hook, e-mails to our saying they're starting to get it, that this is what can happen, particularly with every purpose pipeline, which is what the pegasus is. adam: this is a pipeline used to flow in one direction and now flows and the other. the primary traveling roadway, pipeline for canadian tar sands oil into the united states out of the gulf? >> that was the ruling made by the appellate court around pegasus, but if transcanada get their way this pipeline, the xl or discos coast segment that they're building now, the fastest pace that they can, it would eclipse, i think, with the pegasus is doing. adam: in the keystone pipeline, what transcanada is doing, they used eminent domain to take some of your land so that the bill that portion of it, is that accurate? >> that is and primarily what our case is in court. i believe personally that the pipeline is bad for a lot of reasons. in the legal system yet to distill it down.
we are saying transcanada, a foreign corporation bull in a pipeline that appears to be for their financial in should not be able to take my land. adam: we had a guest on friday. he was sent to s, he made a very good argument as to why they might have a good argument. create 700 jobs for cushing, oklahoma. you can point to those jobs. the construction portion, roughly 9,000 jobs. i think all of us hate to see an accident like we are witnessing in arkansas, but isn't that -- you know, access to happen, even with the best technology. isn't that a balance that is worth taking? >> i would like to see where those numbers came from. i mean, there is a lot of dispute, and it is they keep it that turned up on transcanada. all i know is, where i live the
people of there building the pipeline across the road from the came from other projects that were not newly created jobs and no trucks with texas plates. i don't know -- a lot of dispute on whether those numbers come from. adam: the environmental issues, do you think this bill like this, which i think would be called a small spill compared to will we have seen in other parts of the country, is this the kind of thing that if it were to happen on your land to you think it could be cleaned up, or do you not to steal companies to do that? >> at think some interesting disputes, the pipeline was reproduced and reversed specifically for tarzan's. they are describing this recent spill as a conventional spill, making no distinction on it. the problem at our farm is it any kind of spill happens under the creek where transcanada intends for this pipeline, it would flow down to my irrigation system. the tar sands for which the pipeline is being built, the
transcanada pipelines carry this stuff sinks to the bottom of the waterway and does not float. that creates a whole different set of problems, dislike the bill in the kalamazoo river. look up the kalamazoo's built. adam: this is an issue that so many people on different sides of it are very passionate about. when it comes down to your land i think all of us can relate to wanted to protect your land at your farm. thank you for joining us. >> thank you very much, adam. adam: it is time now for the fuel gauge report. from one energy accident to another. the incoming tide caused the banker to collide with the bridge. no leaks have been reported. opec marks the oil output will likely be the lowest since october 2011. new estimates a production fell 30 million barrels per day in march down by 200,000 barrels a day from february. an oil futures for the first
time. the shutdown of exxon pegasus pipeline helped fuel, raising fears that crude inventories would rise. but oil pared back from session lows closing down $0.16. at the end of the day $97.7 per barrel. up next on "money," commodities investors have completely missed this year's bull run, but are the dog days for commodities finally coming to an end? stay right where you are. details on how to cash in. piles of -- coming up. ♪ she knows you like no one else.
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♪ adam: it does not matter what time it is, "money" is always on the move. take a look at shares of? , soaring after hours. this comes after regulators approved a plan to improve plants. stocks stored in the first quarter of the year, no doubt about that. record levels combat the same time commodities posted the worst first quarter we have seen since 2010, the drops in prices are being blamed on increased output, decreased demand for things like metal, oil, even food crops, whatever the reason, we are going to tell you how you can make some money, even of the low prices. trying to turn the managing director of weatherspoon asset management which specializes in
commodities futures investment. >> right to be here. adam: i think it would be an easy bet on commodities. a growing population in china, brazil has to be fed. i realize corps reserves are higher than we thought, some commodities for food reserves are higher. but this is something you want to get them down. >> well, i've certainly think that is. if you think the guys that are running harvard endowment are smart, they have put a decent amount and commodities themselves. in general, over time commodities will be a great diversity fire in any stock and bond portfolio that lightens up on your volatility in hopes to increase returns. but obviously the big disconnect of what is going on with stockmarkets in commodity prices at this point. adam: let's talk about the disconnect. there is no guarantee. we have just come off the worst quarter in three years. there is no guarantee that will reverse the second quarter, is there? >> certainly not. i think what you're seeing is
that in general one of the reasons for this disconnect is a weak 55 a strong dollar which is typically not good for commodity prices short-term, but one of the big reasons for this disconnect is the fact that the fed continues to push this market higher by being behind the market and in general investors are waiting for her -- excuse me, are counting on the fed to step in if there is any kind of crack. it has created this unfavorable risk return profile that just is not sustainable over the long term. adam: so let's talk about some of the matters. for instance, copper. all you ever hear is china, china, china. grow, grow, grow. whether you believe the numbers are not, the official government , the p.m. my reading came out. even the hsbc, so shouldn't cover be going higher? >> well, what you are seeing now
is there is a lot of concern over whether policies going forward, what it will be. one of the reason we have seen this fall-off is exactly that, concern over what is going to happen in the future. and i think it's going to continue to see some volatility. at the end of the day the commodities market is right. the stock market or commodities market is right. we don't know right now what it's going to be. we will over the next few months, but typically there is a high degree of correlation, so we will see a combination of commodities rise and in general, the stock market might come back a little bit to meet up with what the commodities market is telling us. adam: so if i wanted to get in on commodities, have no idea that? where should we be going out and invest? >> i think in general over the long term there will be more and more demand, more people that are born.
it makes sense. for retail investment, from a lot of your viewers it's very hard for them to track what the price swings will happen in metals or cotton. weatherspoon asset management, we recently put together a mutual fund, and what our feeling is, it's much better to have experienced traders in the future -- futures markets that are buying into these various metals and commodities but also shorting them and they find opportunities to. these seven strategies are available in the mutual fund space. the barclays managed futures index was up. transfigure what direction the center going. track records and experience of navigating through this complex futures markets which makes more sense.
adam: the asset directing manager. they're always looking to buy a bargain and right now seems that a place to go. coming upon "money," want to know when the world has truly gotten out of whack? a model example of what to do with people asking for a bailout is putin. we will explain that answer next. at the end of the day is all about "money." ♪
♪ adam: the fallout from the financial mess in cyprus continues. now russia officially says it will not step up and help businesses, russian businesses that lost money which could force russian companies to take a huge hit as they are making up most of that non eu money in simply banks. bank deposits are being confused -- converted into shares of bank stock. maybe we sit -- should say worthless shares. here to explain to my former consultant to the imf and u.s. treasury department. thank you for joining us on
"money." >> good to be here. adam: if you're a depositor with over $128,000 you happen to be at a bank that will be reconstituted you will get shares for the money they will seize above the 128,000, and it is about 60 percent of your money there will be converted into stock. is that accurate? >> yes, that is accurate. it could be worse, but that is about where we are now. if you think you can go out and spend those shares at the supermarket or anyplace else, think again. adam: kind of like a good luck. >> right. adam: and they have done much better than i think. >> i would rather have shares of general motors than these bank shares it. adam: is simply -- essentially the same kind of formula. now you have the russians saying you've lost your money. what is the danger going forward from this model. we have the agricultural minister, a member of the eu
ministry, and he was saying that this is the protocol going forward. then he backed off of that, but in actuality this is what they're going to do, is it not? >> we will call him mr. d. what happened here is, you know, if you thought you were a depositor. you think of yourself as a depositor if you have a technical or savings account. then they say, no, you are an investor and will contribute to the bailout. so turning depositors and investors is a really bad idea and anybody who has got a deposit in a bank wants to be assured that they are not going to be told, no, you are an investor now and be handed worthless shares in exchange for what they thought was ready money. adam: in the united states we have avoided this scenario not only because we have fdic insurance, people who have deposits greater than the $250,000 which are insured have never been heard, their funds have been transferred to other banks. they have remained holed.
we have been able to avoid this kind of scenario accurately, correct? >> yes. in paris, we were pretty specific. after the limit crisis a lot of companies said the half millions of dollars in deposits in banks to meet payrolls and so they offered unlimited insurance on depository accounts that pay zero interest that coverage was ended in the end of december of 2012. so being depositors, i think, have as much a right to expect that their deposits will be ready money because they're using them as money. so when you start telling people who have got there deposits that they are suddenly investors, they get nervvus. and so we are not close to that year, but it is a very bad precedent for the rest of europe. and certainly wouldn't want to be a depositor in the greek bank right now. it might become an investor. adam: u.s. corporations have not examined this the really, but do we face in the exposure to their
deposits and foreign banks to actually have deposits in banks which have at least in ireland or spain and italy. >> sure. i mean, if you are a big international company, you are doing business in europe. you have to have euro denominated deposits because everyone wants to get paid in euros, so you are a depositor and have to have those deposits. it is sort of like something that you need to have been something you need to feel as safe well you're waiting to make payments with the funds. the same is true in japan, yen deposits. these are all necessary parts of doing business. adam: i am afraid we have run at a time, but we appreciate your being here on "money". >> thank you. adam: next on "money," cat owners will buy just about any accessory imaginable, but trying to correct things up to a whole new level. you can never have too much money to spend and your cash. it. ♪ ♪
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i'm having trouble talking today. this is ashley webster. we have to be careful. >> the client. adam: macy's may be making a huge mistake in its weekend at the circular. the advertised as super by a $1,500 necklace on sale for $47. sounds too good to be true. of course it is because it was. it should have had a number nine at the end. the price should have been $4,709. they finally noticed the mistake. customers got the bottom basement price. those stores have to sell products at the advertised price no matter what? >> you're a lawyer. >> they do. and we know the circumstances under which that took place. they can say, look, we ran out of the scent of necklaces and cannot do it for that sale price which is probably what would
happen because they are sophisticated. kudos to them. that is probably what ended up happening. >> the person in front of them get the very last necklace of is wrigley said, we will get it to you and leave a voice about today's letter saying we're out of them. but we're very sorry, must be very disappointed that his wife did not get. adam: the $20,000.1 john ticket. are not current on it. then they have to. let's move on to this. two new inventions that cauterize. introducing its new head phone line. this one coming. they know that they do what they do best. this time the technology lets you look of smells.
anything from airport germs. if you believe either of these things i ever bridge to sell you. there april fool's jokes, but do you think the company get anyone to believe this legitimate? >> probably always someone. that is so cool. absolutely. that is part of the fund, get somebody out there. >> people are crazy about their pets. anything out there. adam: i was doing some research. shows a picture of a woman holding in iphone type device. this cannot be real. i have seen crazier stuff. people do bizarre things. speaking of april fools, this one is no laughing matter. what you think that was pretty funny, the survey says your boss did not like it. the national study shows that 68 percent of executives in the advertising and marketing field have no sense of humor. also a mere 3 percent of them
find the pranks very appropriate. >> get a sense of humor. we have a very large firm, 600 lawyers. we prank. we do an internal prank. >> you have to have a sense of humor. we're in the news business. obviously you have to be into it. you cannot play. adam: you have to be careful because what you might think is funny, for instance, rule number one, don't do a video tape because come christmastime it will be someone's office videotape. >> we superimpose faces on pictures, so we have a body builder body. adam: now we know and you do it. moving on. you probably never heard of new jersey's newest mega millionaire taking care of some personal matters. 330 billion. paine his entire neighborhoods
rent. he also paid off his jells support. the bodega owner is going to cover the blog for one month to. he tried to do for a lot longer than that. does it make you jealous knowing he is doing something good? >> what a good man. i thought to my kudos for doing that. it's great. >> listen, incredibly generous. i think within 18 months we will see him on a special on however blew my 221. adam: this is reality. a lottery jackpot winner that goes broke within five years. >> but he would get a financial planner in analyst and manages money. your talking about $100 million. adam: 29 million child support. ed want to pass judgment. >> as long as someone kayten put in offensive stop. adam: after he's given a portion >> of course. adam: finally, the next one, the easter bunny shows a play in this is probably why.
take a look. california's state trooper pulling of room and dressed in a white rabbit costa and riding a motorcycle. the charge, wearing a white rabbit out foot on a motorcycle without a helmet as he made his way to a charity event. it was just a warning. even if your ears don't fit, safety comes first. you'd think they should have given him a ticket? >> the outfit alone. >> laugh and listen, where it next time. don't give him a ticket. adam: i'm wondering if they don't crash test as those giant red heads. you see that everyday. >> the fact that his arms are outstretched. no, i'm not panicking. i'm not panicking. i swear. >> the out fit in the trunk. in the compartment where you store stuff and get dressed later. the kids don't have to see you put it on. >> at think he just wanted to get laughs on the way there.